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5 min readChecked Oct 2026
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Tokyo Disney long-weekend crowd forecast, 2026–2027: quiet days and ticket prices

On a three-day weekend, skip the middle day and go on the last day or the first. The quietest-looking holiday is Coming of Age Day, Monday, Jan 11. The November and March long weekends are forecast "packed" on all three days.

Mon Jan 11
The quietest-looking holiday. DisneySea is forecast "quiet", and tickets are ¥9,900
All 3 days
Forecast "packed" at both parks on the November and March three-day weekends
7 of 66
Three-day weekends where the middle day was the quietest (Disneyland)

Who this is for:Anyone who wants to visit on a Japanese long weekend between November 2026 and May 2027 and is choosing which day

NextPick a day on the crowd calendar
Tokyo Disney long-weekend crowd forecast, 2026–2027: quiet days and ticket prices
Contents (10)
1

Which day of a three-day weekend is quietest?

We counted the day with the shortest daily average wait on each three-day weekend in 2015–2019 and 2023–2026. Almost always it was the last day or the first. The middle day was quietest only 7 times. The middle day ran about 1.4× a usual day, the first and last days about 1.1×.

Sources:[2]Offpeak Parks data[3]Official info

How often each day was the quietest of a three-day weekend

66 three-day weekends at Disneyland and 67 at DisneySea. We left out 2020–2022, when attendance was limited because of COVID-19.

DisneylandDisneySea
First day
24 times
31 times
Middle day
7 times
3 times
Last day
35 times
33 times
In seasons that are busy anyway, like November and March, even the last day is busier than usual.
2

Every long weekend from November 2026 to May 2027

For each long weekend, we picked the best day from the Offpeak Parks forecast and last year's records. The forecast is as of October 3, 2026.

Sources:[1]Offpeak Parks data[3]Official info

Tue Nov 3 (holiday)
Fairly busy
Culture Day

A single holiday. Both parks forecast "busy". Take Mon Nov 2 off for a four-day weekend

Sat Nov 21 – Mon Nov 23 (holiday)
Avoid
Labor Thanksgiving Day weekend

Forecast "packed" on all three days. If you must, pick the last day, Nov 23

Fri Jan 1 (holiday) – Sun Jan 3
Avoid
New Year

Disneyland is forecast "packed" on Sat Jan 2. Busy until winter break ends on Jan 7

Sat Jan 9 – Mon Jan 11 (holiday)
Good pick
Coming of Age Day weekend

Go on the last day, Jan 11. DisneySea is forecast "quiet"

Thu Feb 11 (holiday)
Depends on the day
National Foundation Day

The holiday itself is "normal" at Disneyland. Fri Feb 12, if you take it off, is forecast busier

Sat Feb 20 – Tue Feb 23 (holiday)
Fairly busy
The Emperor's Birthday

Take Mon Feb 22 off for a four-day weekend. Disneyland is forecast "busy" on all four days

Sat Mar 20 – Mon Mar 22 (holiday)
Avoid
Vernal Equinox weekend

Forecast "packed" on all three days. In years with the same weekdays, the first day was quietest

Thu Apr 29 (holiday), Sat May 1 – Wed May 5
Depends on the day
Golden Week

May 2–4 are the busiest. No forecast yet

Worth noting:When the forecast misses, 70% of misses are on the quiet side. Check again once your date is within four weeks.
3

November: the Labor Thanksgiving Day weekend is packed all three days

Both parks are forecast "packed" on all three days, Nov 21–23. Last year's same weekend (Nov 22–24, 2025) ran about 1.6× usual on all three days, with the last day only slightly shorter. If you must go, pick the last day, Nov 23: tickets are ¥1,500 cheaper.

Sources:[1]Offpeak Parks data[2]Offpeak Parks data[4]Offpeak Parks data[6]Official info

DateDisneylandDisneySeaAdult ticket
Sat Nov 21PackedPacked¥12,400
Sun Nov 22PackedPacked¥12,400
◎ Mon Nov 23 (holiday)PackedPacked¥10,900
Tue Nov 24BusyBusy¥10,900
Last year's daily average waits on Nov 22–24 were 39, 41 and 38 minutes at Disneyland and 63, 65 and 61 at DisneySea.
Tickets for Nov 21–23 are already on sale (since Sep 21–23).

When all three days are packed, getting in before opening changes your waits for the first hour.

Hotels with early entry (Disney hotels)Enter Disneyland 15 minutes before general entry the morning after your stay (some dates excluded)See hotels
See the forecast for Mon Nov 23
4

New Year and Coming of Age Day: go on Mon Jan 11

Jan 1–3 are forecast "busy" or worse on all three days, and it stays busy until winter break ends on Jan 7. On the Coming of Age Day weekend, the middle day, Sun Jan 10, is busy and the last day, Jan 11, is forecast quiet. In 2026 too, the last day of this weekend (Jan 12) was the shortest, and both parks were "quiet".

Sources:[1]Offpeak Parks data[2]Offpeak Parks data[4]Offpeak Parks data[5]Official info[7]Official info

DateDisneylandDisneySeaAdult ticket
Fri Jan 1 (holiday)BusyBusy¥11,900
Sat Jan 2PackedBusy¥11,900
Sun Jan 3BusyBusy¥11,900
Sat Jan 9NormalNormal¥10,900
Sun Jan 10BusyBusy¥10,900
◎ Mon Jan 11 (holiday)CalmQuiet¥9,900
The next weekday, Tue Jan 12, is also forecast "calm" at both parks.
Tickets for Jan 1–3 go on sale on Nov 1–3, and for Jan 9–11 on Nov 9–11, at 14:00.
See the January 2027 crowd calendar
5

February: midweek holidays. What if you add a day off?

In 2027, Feb 11 is a Thursday and Feb 23 a Tuesday, so there's no three-day weekend in February. If you add a day off to make four days, the weekday you add (Feb 12 or Feb 22) is forecast "packed" at DisneySea. February prices weren't out yet as of October 3.

Sources:[1]Offpeak Parks data[2]Offpeak Parks data[3]Official info[5]Official info

📋 See the full list
DateDisneylandDisneySeaAdult ticket
◎ Thu Feb 11 (holiday)NormalBusyNot out yet
Fri Feb 12BusyPackedNot out yet
Sat Feb 13BusyBusyNot out yet
Sun Feb 14BusyBusyNot out yet
Sat Feb 20BusyBusyNot out yet
Sun Feb 21BusyBusyNot out yet
Mon Feb 22BusyPackedNot out yet
Tue Feb 23 (holiday)BusyBusyNot out yet
On National Foundation Day 2026 (Wed Feb 11), DisneySea was "quiet".
Tickets for Feb 11 go on sale on Dec 11, and for Feb 20–23 on Dec 20–23, at 14:00.
See the February 2027 crowd calendar
6

March: on the Vernal Equinox weekend, go on the first day

In 2027, Mar 21 is a Sunday, so Mon Mar 22 is a substitute holiday. All three days are forecast "packed". In 2016 and 2017, when the weekend also ran Saturday to Monday, the first day (Saturday) was the shortest both times, and the Sunday was more than 2× usual at Disneyland.

Sources:[1]Offpeak Parks data[2]Offpeak Parks data[3]Official info[5]Official info[7]Official info

DateDisneylandDisneySeaAdult ticket
◎ Sat Mar 20PackedPackedNot out yet
Sun Mar 21 (holiday)PackedPackedNot out yet
Mon Mar 22 (holiday)PackedPackedNot out yet
March is busy on weekdays too. Spring break at Tokyo metropolitan schools runs Mar 26 – Apr 5.
Tickets for Mar 20–22 go on sale on Jan 20–22 at 14:00.
See the March 2027 crowd calendar
7

Golden Week: Apr 29 and May 1–5

Golden Week 2027 is Thu Apr 29 plus five days off from Sat May 1 to Wed May 5. It's still beyond our forecast range; forecasts start coming out at the end of October. In 2026, which had the same weekdays, the middle three days of the five-day break were busy and the last day was quiet.

Sources:[1]Offpeak Parks data[2]Offpeak Parks data[3]Official info

See the Golden Week 2027 crowd forecast
8

Last year's records for the same holidays

Daily average waits for each day of last year's long weekends, from the first day.

Sources:[2]Offpeak Parks data

Long weekendDisneylandDisneySea
Nov 22–24, 2025: Labor Thanksgiving Day39, 41, 38 min63, 65, 61 min
Jan 1–3, 2026: New Year35, 34, 36 min57, 61, 57 min
Jan 10–12, 2026: Coming of Age Day26, 27, 16 min41, 52, 28 min
Feb 21–23, 2026: Emperor's Birthday34, 42, 35 min49, 72, 53 min
Mar 20–22, 2026: Vernal Equinox39, 36, 29 min60, 63, 44 min
May 2–6, 2026: Golden Week26, 39, 33, 36, 20 min44, 62, 65, 62, 31 min
Worth noting:The daily average wait is the average across all attractions running that day. The January–September 2026 average was 25 minutes at Disneyland and 45 at DisneySea.
What to do next

Before you go on a long weekend, just do this

  1. When choosing dates
    • On a three-day weekend, skip the middle day
    • In winter, make Coming of Age Day, Mon Jan 11, your first choice
    • In November pick the last day, Nov 23; in March pick the first day, Mar 20
  2. On sale day
    • Tickets go on sale at 14:00, two months before your date. Put the sale date in your phone's calendar
    • When February and March prices come out, compare your candidate dates
  3. Four weeks before
    • Check the forecast for your candidate dates again on the crowd calendar
    • Plan your route for the day and save it

The forecasts in this article are as of October 3. The crowd calendar updates every night and lets you compare candidate dates side by side.

See long-weekend forecasts on the crowd calendar

Read next

This is guide 4 of 33 under “Plan the trip”.See them all

Frequently asked questions

Q.

Which day of a three-day weekend is quietest?

The last day or the first. At Disneyland, the middle day was the quietest in only 7 of 66 three-day weekends.More in "Which day of a three-day weekend is quietest?"

Q.

Is the Labor Thanksgiving Day weekend (Nov 21–23) quiet?

No. All three days are forecast "packed". If you must go, pick the last day, Mon Nov 23, when tickets are ¥10,900.More in "November: the Labor Thanksgiving Day weekend is packed all three days"

Q.

Is the last day of the Vernal Equinox weekend quiet?

In 2016 and 2017, when the weekend also ran Saturday to Monday, the first day (Saturday) was the shortest. In 2027 that's Sat Mar 20.More in "March: on the Vernal Equinox weekend, go on the first day"

Q.

When will the Golden Week forecast come out?

Offpeak Parks forecasts about six months ahead, so Golden Week forecasts come out from late October to early November. Until then, see our Golden Week article for what to expect.More in "Golden Week: Apr 29 and May 1–5"

Tools:Live waitsBuild a routePacking list

Who writes this and where the numbers come from:About Offpeak ParksHow our crowd forecast works

Sources for this article (7 sources, checked October 3, 2026)

Checked on October 3, 2026. Prices and rules can change, so check the official site just before you go.

  1. [1]Offpeak Parks dataOffpeak Parks crowd forecast (as of October 3, 2026, for November 2026 – March 2027)Same five levels as the crowd calendar (quiet, calm, normal, busy, packed). Remade every night for about six months ahead. In past tests, 70% of misses were on the quiet side
  2. [2]Offpeak Parks dataDaily crowd records collected by Offpeak Parks (2015–2019 and January 2023 – September 2026)Daily average wait across all attractions, built from waits recorded every 30 minutes by the crowd-forecast site yosocal and from Offpeak Parks' own records. Not attendance. A three-day weekend is three days off in a row including a national holiday (66 at Disneyland, 67 at DisneySea). "Usual" is that year's average. 2020–2022 left out because attendance was limited during COVID-19
  3. [3]Official infoCabinet Office: National holidays (Japanese)November 3 and 23, 2026; January 1 and 11, February 11 and 23, March 21 with a substitute holiday on March 22, April 29, and May 3–5, 2027 (checked October 3, 2026, against the holiday list)
  4. [4]Offpeak Parks dataOffpeak Parks records: park calendar collected nightly (November 2026 – January 2027)1-Day Passport (adult) prices. Both parks cost the same. Prices from February 2027 aren't listed yet (collected October 2, 2026)
  5. [5]Official infoOfficial FAQ: When and where can I buy park tickets? (ID:00403)Tickets for the same date two months ahead go on sale daily at 14:00 (checked October 3, 2026)
  6. [6]Official infoTokyo Disney Resort official: Happy Entry (archived, Japanese)At Disneyland, guests of six hotels enter 15 minutes before general entry. Not on the check-in day. Some dates are excluded (archived September 4, 2026; content as of August 25)
  7. [7]Official infoTokyo Metropolitan Government: rules for metropolitan schools (Japanese)Breaks: winter December 26 – January 7, spring March 26 – April 5
Tags:#long weekend#Japanese holidays#crowd forecast#2027#when to go← All guides